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SEPTEMBER 2,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:54 P.M. ET: 

BUT IS IT TRUE? – FROM THE HILL:   Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by just one point in Virginia, according to a new poll from Emerson College that shows a closer race than other recent surveys.  The Emerson surveys out Friday also find Trump with a five-point lead in the swing state of iowa.  Emerson College’s surveys have consistently found Trump running closer to Clinton than other polls concerning the 2016 race. Some pollsters have questioned the polls’ methodology due to the results relying solely on landline telephone interviews.  Emerson College conducted its latest sampling of 800 likely voters in Virginia via landline telephone interviews from Aug. 30-Sept. 1. It has a 3.4 percent margin of error.  Emerson College sampled 600 likely voters in Iowa, meanwhile, via landline telephone interviews during the same period. It sports a 3.9 percent margin of error.  Other polls show Clinton ahead in Virginia by double digits, and that can't be right also.  We present these numbers and ask that they be read with caution.

ARE YOU READY TO TRAVEL? – FROM FOX:   Vacation in Syria? Seriously?  The war-torn nation's Ministry of Tourism released a promotional tourism video featuring Tartus, one of its pristine coastal towns, in hopes of attracting tourists. Missing from the pitch was the fact that a suicide bomber killed dozens on that same beach earlier this summer, and residents of Homs, just 60 miles away, are running from government-sacntioned bombings.  The one-minute, 43-second video-- presumably filmed by an unarmed drone-- is titled “Syria--Always Beautiful.” With festive music and sunseeker on jet skis and frolicking on beaches, the idyllic footage is akin to advertisements Americans might see luring them to a place like Myrtle Beach, S.C.  The video is one of a dozen videos uploaded by the ministry with no mention of the country’s bloody conflict that has killed at least 400,000.   I have no doubt that some student groups from America's left-wing universities are ready to go, bags packed.

THE CLINTON-TRUMP DEBATE MODERATORS – FROM MEDIAITE:   The first debate on September 26 will be moderated by Lester Holt of NBC...Anderson Cooper of CNN and Martha Raddatz of ABC will co-moderate the second presidential debate on October 9, which will take place in St. Louis, Missouri...Finally, Fox anchor Chris Wallace will host the third debate on October 19, live from UNLV in Las Vegas, Nevada...Elaine Quijano of CBS News will also serve as moderator on October 4, during the debate between vice-presidential candidates Tim Kaine and Mike Pence. The VP debate will take place in Farmville, Virginia on the campus of Longwood University.  A heavily liberal group, but that's what we expect.  It will be up to Trump to overcome that, but that's now the job of any GOP presidential candidate.

September 2,  2016     Permalink

UNDERSTANDING HILLARY – QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 11:38 A.M. ET:  Trump is the fascinating candidate, love him or despise him.  But what about Hillary?  She's been nationally famous for as long as FDR was on the day he died in 1945.  (He'd become a national figure when running for vice president on the Democratic ticket in 1920.) 

And yet, she seems directionless, lacking any real passion or policy, someone up there who wants to be president because she wants to be president.  What makes her tick?  Peggy Noonan has an insight, and our quote of the day.  From The Wall Street Journal:   

I was at one of her rallies in a high-school gym in a handsome suburb. It was well-organized—good lighting and security, a buzzy crowd. Mrs. Clinton was introduced and she bounded out—blue pantsuit, well made-up, high-energy, pointing out friends, real or imagined, in the crowd. I thought: Give it to her, she’s 60-something, she’s out in America working the room, making the speech, enacting the joy, when she could be home on a Saturday night watching TV.

Then it struck me. If she weren’t here, she’d be in an empty house in Chappaqua, N.Y., the focus of no eyes—not important, not glamorous, no aides or staffers. I thought: She needs to run, it’s this or reruns on Bravo. I thought: This is why you pick up that there is no overarching purpose, theme or mission to her candidacy—because there isn’t. There is only her need—not to be powerless, not to be away from the center. It’s not The America Project, it’s The Hillary Project.

You see that a lot in politicians, but not always those running for president. That night I think I saw it in her.

COMMENT:  And I think Peggy Noonan is right.  Hillary is the ultimate ticket puncher, going from job to job, accomplishing little, but aiming for the next promotion.  Few think she's a woman of high character, yet she wants to be the first female president of the United States.   I look around the Congress and the governors' offices, and see a number of outstanding women, of both parties, and wonder why "the first" couldn't have been one of them. 

We have a leadership deficit at the very top in America.  Barack Obama, a vastly underqualified candidate, is president.  He may well be succeeded by Hillary Clinton, a vastly dishonest one.  And most Americans have a dim view of Trump.

Maybe we should look hard at our presidential nominating process.

September 2, 2016       Permalink 

AMERICANS AND NATIONAL SECURITY – AT 10:56 A.M. ET:  On this anniversary of the end of World War II, Americans are apprehensive about national security.  From Fox: 

A record-high 54 percent of American voters feel the U.S. is less safe today than it was before 9/11, according to the latest Fox News national poll.

Voters also think:

- A major terrorist attack is likely in the near future.

- Last year’s U.S.-Iran agreement on Iran’s nuclear program made the U.S. less safe.

- The $400 million the U.S. paid Iran after American prisoners were released was ransom.

- Terrorism is one of the most important issues facing the country.

- Hillary Clinton can do a better job handling the issue of terrorism than Donald Trump.

Here are the details behind those findings:

Most voters, 80 percent, think it’s at least somewhat likely a major attack “causing large numbers of American lives to be lost” will happen in the near future.

Moreover, 37 percent feel it’s “very likely” an attack will happen soon. While that’s down from the high of 43 percent in 2007, it’s up from 24 percent who felt that way in 2011 (the last time this question was asked on a Fox News Poll).

Some 54 percent think the United States is less safe now than before the September 11 attacks. Thirty-nine percent say the country is safer. Last year, it was 53-38 percent (March 2015). This is a fairly recent shift. Prior to September 2014, more voters than not said the country was safer.

COMMENT:  Americans are reacting to events around the world, and in Orlando and San Bernardino in this country.  They are not encouraged, and clearly not enamored of their leadership.

I'm struck by the fact that poll respondents believed Hillary Clinton would be better at handling terrorism than Donald Trump.  This is the same Hillary Clinton who told the nation, dishonestly, that the Benghazi attack was the result of an online video.  And yet, I understand the response.  Trump has yet to ignite confidence in the idea that he can be commander-in-chief.  It is a dramatic failure.  If Trump loses, and that is still statistically probable, that will be one of the reasons.

September 2, 2016       Permalink 

THIS DATE – AT 10:08 A.M. ET:  On this date in 1945 the Second World War came to an end.  Japan formally surrendered on the deck of the battleship USS Missouri, anchored in Tokyo Bay.

Today the Missouri is a museum ship docked at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.  It is close to the sunken battleship USS Arizona, which was destroyed by the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941.  That attack forced America to enter the war.  The symbolism of the two ships – one representing an American defeat, the other the ultimate American victory – cannot be missed.

I note the date in part because of Donald Trump's campaign theme – "Make America Great Again."  Some scoff at it, but it has meaning. It reflects the belief that we have lost something in America, not necessarily anything physical or touchable, but a certain spirit – a belief that, with all our faults, we are the last great hope of humankind.  Certain self-appointed "sophisticates," including our president for the next four months, scoff at it, too.  To them, American exceptionalism is just a juvenile, simplistic idea.  But it is not.  It is the reason millions of people from around the world want to migrate to the United States each year.  Are they all misinformed?  Victims of Fox News?  Islamophobes?

The American phase of World War II lasted only three years and nine months.  Somehow, we think of it as much longer, perhaps because World War II was "the war," the central event of the 20th century, the drama around which many of our families' lives revolved.  In that short period the United States, reflecting its traditional spirit, went from a relatively weak and unprepared nation to the world's superpower, creating what has been called the "American century."

In recent decades it has been fashionable to denigrate America, to doubt its greatness, to question its abilities.  During those moments we often think back to the era of World War II – the bravery, the war production, even the music, and we hope to once again be that good.

September 2,  2016     Permalink

SEPTEMBER 1,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

IMPORTANT EDUCATION NEWS – FROM THE COLLEGE FIX:   Students at Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy can take refuge in a new safe space.  The room, literally called the “Sanford Safe Space,” will make its debut this year in a former faculty office turned safe space, reports The Duke Chronicle student newspaper.  Duke University spokeswoman Karen Kemp confirmed the Chronicle article is correct, but did not have further comment to The College Fix.  I'm so happy that the Duke students can find comfort and safety.  It must have been nightmarish without this little touch of the womb.

TRUMP HUSTLING IN PENNSYLVANIA – FROM THE HILL:   Hillary Clinton's lead over Donald Trump is down to 7 points in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, according to a new Franklin and Marshall College poll released Thursday morning.  Clinton has 47 percent support in the Keystone State, the poll found, with Trump at 40 percent.  Clinton, the Democratic presidential nominee, led by 11 points in the same poll last month, immediately following the Democratic National Convention.  Among registered voters, Clinton's lead dropped 4 points, from 43 percent to 39 percent.  No doubt this reflects the overall trend we've seen recently, with the gap narrowing.  However, there's no guarantee that trend will continue.  Gaps often narrow and, in the end, the person who was always leading often winds up the winner, if only by a narrow margin.  No guarantees here.

SOMETHING'S HAPPENING – FROM THE NEW YORK POST:   It’s tough times for the Big Apple’s grocers.  Garden of Eden, a 22-year-old upscale market, filed for bankruptcy protection this week after closing half of its six stores in the last few years.  The filing in Manhattan federal court is the latest blow to the city’s family-owned, independent grocers.  Cash-strapped D’Agostino is getting a financial lifeline from billionaire John Catsimatidis, who owns the Red Apple and Gristedes grocery stores.  Fairway Market, which was family-owned before it went public in 2013, filed for Chapter 11 earlier this year.  Garden of Eden experienced “a historic lack of patronage” this year, which reached a crisis in the slower summer months when it fell behind on payments to its secured creditors and landlord, according to the filing.  What happens in New York is often felt around the country.  I'm hearing the same story more and more – cash-strapped customers, even those living in affluent areas, can't afford to pay their grocery bills, and are buying much less.  A number of restaurants are also closing.  Something's happening out there, and it isn't good.

September 1,  2016     Permalink

AND IN THE REAL WORLD – AT 11:22 A.M. ET:   It's easy to be focused only on our election campaign.  But we also survey the real world each day, and what we find isn't all that encouraging.  Obama (remember?) has four and half months left in office to do his mischief, establish his legacy, and damage the country.  He doesn't much like us anyway.  We learn more and more about some of his schemes, and we realize that we will eventually pay the bill, in blood and treasure.  From Reuters: 

The United States and its negotiating partners agreed "in secret" to allow Iran to evade some restrictions in last year's landmark nuclear agreement in order to meet the deadline for it to start getting relief from economic sanctions, according to a report reviewed by Reuters.

The report is to be published on Thursday by the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security, said the think tank’s president David Albright, a former U.N. weapons inspector and co-author of the report. It is based on information provided by several officials of governments involved in the negotiations, who Albright declined to identify.

Reuters could not independently verify the report's assertions.

"The exemptions or loopholes are happening in secret, and it appears that they favor Iran," Albright said.

Among the exemptions were two that allowed Iran to exceed the deal's limits on how much low-enriched uranium (LEU) it can keep in its nuclear facilities, the report said. LEU can be purified into highly enriched, weapons-grade uranium.

The exemptions, the report said, were approved by the joint commission the deal created to oversee implementation of the accord. The commission is comprised of the United States and its negotiating partners -- called the P5+1 -- and Iran.

One senior "knowledgeable" official was cited by the report as saying that if the joint commission had not acted to create these exemptions, some of Iran’s nuclear facilities would not have been in compliance with the deal by Jan. 16, the deadline for the beginning of the lifting of sanctions.

The U.S. administration has said that the world powers that negotiated the accord -- the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany -- made no secret arrangements.

COMMENT:  What is remarkable is that, no matter how many concessions we offer Iran, that country's behavior toward us never improves.  In fact, it's gotten dramatically worse since the nuclear agreement.  The Iranians capture our sailors, harass our ships in international waters, and test ICBM's, whose only purpose is to carry nuclear warheads.

Obama considers the Iran deal the signature achievement of his time in office.

If his purpose was to enhance Iranian power, and diminish American strength in the region, it is a major achievement.  Congratulations, Mr. President.  Thanks for...something.

September 1, 2016        Permalink

IT DOESN'T RAIN, IT POURS...ON HILLARY – AT 10:08 A.M. ET:  The big deal with Hillary is that she appeals to women.  It appears that many women didn't get their instructions.  From the Washington Examiner: 

Hillary Clinton's favorability among women has suddenly reversed itself.

Last month, women had a largely favorable view of the Democratic presidential candidate, with 54 percent viewing her positively and 43 percent viewing her negatively. But those numbers have flipped in the last few weeks, according to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Women now dislike Clinton, with 52 percent holding a negative view and 45 percent holding a positive view. This is the first time in a year that more women have disliked Clinton than liked her.

Women were probably never as pro-Clinton as Democrats and liberal writers had hoped. They certainly were never as pro-Clinton as most of the African-American community was pro-Obama. Earlier this year, polls found Clinton's lead among women collapsing, as young women in particular favored her then-rival Bernie Sanders.

As Clinton has fallen in popularity among women, her rival, GOP nominee Donald Trump, has gained. Trump has gained 7 points in favorability among women, from 26 percent in early August to a better-but-still-not-great 33 percent now.

COMMENT:  Again, we emphasize that polls are snapshots in time.  All of this can change very quickly.  Trump has had a few good weeks, and Hillary has had bad ones.  Her scandals continue to make news, but she doesn't.  Her campaign schedule has been light to nonexistent. 

Wait 'til next week.

September 1, 2016       Permalink

ANOTHER BLOW TO CLINTON – AT 9:29 A.M. ET:  This is clearly a trend, but trends don't necessarily last.  From Rasmussen: 

Hillary Clinton’s post-convention lead has disappeared, putting her behind Donald Trump for the first time nationally since mid-July.

The latest weekly Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey shows Trump with 40% support to Clinton’s 39% among Likely U.S. Voters, after Clinton led 42% to 38% a week ago. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson now earns seven percent (7%) of the vote, down from nine percent (9%) the previous two weeks, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein picks up three percent (3%) support. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Clinton's support has been trending down from a high of 44% in early August just after the Democratic National Convention. This is her lowest level of support since mid-July. Trump's support has been eroding, too, from his high of 44% at that time. A one-point lead is statistically insignificant in a survey with a +/- 3 percentage point of margin of error. It highlights, however, that this remains a very close race.

Both major candidates have lost some support this week from voters in their respective parties. Trump now has the backing of 71% of Republicans, down from 76% a week ago. Clinton has 73% of the Democratic vote, down from 79% in the previous survey. Trump attracts 15% of Democrats, while 12% of Republicans prefer Clinton. The GOP nominee continues to hold a small lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party, this week leading 36% to 28%.

COMMENT:  I haven't seen a single poll showing an increase in Clinton's support.  Of course, we should point out that this is the last week of "summer," on the political calendar, and the main campaign starts Tuesday.  I've watched Clinton speak recently, and she comes off as weak, even uninterested.  Trump, however, whether one likes him or not, is energetic and more engaged than ever. 

Everything can change in an instant, and the election is a bit more than two months away.  That's five lifetimes in politics.

September 1,  2016     Permalink